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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple pattern. It often functions as a form of apology. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who oversaw the biggest improvement is handed the award. In practice, it fuels an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or simply the most shocking shock.

But the latest competition is profoundly different. The group of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division winners falling away and recent strugglers ascending together. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in this wild and thrilling year, he's up against five other outstanding candidates.

This is how the projected ballot could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent performance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been able to spin magic out of broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current isn't a typical season!

Where his case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and experience, he trusted newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial hot start, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still