Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return
Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to the House of Commons. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.
Significant Obstacles in the Selection Procedure
Multiple figures on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour hierarchy reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would only return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
Several insiders also expressed fears about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a strong campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.
The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an offensive online group.
