NFL Play-Off Picture: Key Deciders & Scenarios for the Season Finale.
Entering the last weekend of the regular NFL campaign, only a pair of play-off spots remain open. However, far more is at stake, such as the coveted top seeds in each conference and four divisional crowns.
NFL schedulers have crafted a perfect ending, with the two remaining postseason places on the line in a pair of winner-take-all contests.
NFL Postseason Picture as of Week 18
AFC Standings
- Denver (13-3)
- New England (13-3)
- Jacksonville (12-4)
- Pittsburgh (9-7) / Baltimore (8-8)
- Houston (11-5)
- L.A. Chargers (11-5)
- Buffalo Bills (11-5)
The victor of the Pittsburgh-Baltimore game will claim the #4 spot and a home-field advantage in the wildcard round. Meanwhile, the Bills and Los Angeles are set as wildcard entrants.
Houston require a victory and a Jaguars defeat to jump from fifth to third. Denver will earn the #1 ranking with a win, but a setback could pave the way for New England or the Jaguars to snatch it.
NFC Standings
- Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
- Chicago (11-5)
- Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)
- Carolina (8-8) / Tampa Bay (7-9)
- San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
- L.A. Rams (11-5)
- Green Bay (9-6)
The NFC South will be claimed by the winner of the Carolina-Tampa Bay game, earning them the fourth seed. However, Carolina could still claim the divisional title even with a defeat, contingent on other results.
Green Bay are set at the seventh seed. The highlight, however, is the battle for the NFC's top seed between Seattle and San Francisco, with a week off and home-field advantage hanging in the balance.
Understanding the NFL Play-Off Format
The top seed in each conference earns a crucial first-round bye and home games for the duration of the postseason.
On Wildcard Weekend, the remaining six playoff teams face off: the #2 team hosts the seventh, #3 plays #6, and #4 faces #5.
For the second round, the #1 seeds join the fray, facing the weakest surviving team. The AFC and NFC title games are then hosted by the best remaining team, highlighting the critical importance of securing that #1 ranking.
Win or Go Home in the AFC North
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (01:20, Monday)
This fierce grudge match reaches its climax in the final game of the regular season. With the AFC North and a postseason spot on the line, this is a genuine elimination situation.
Pittsburgh have been inconsistent all year, while the Ravens started poorly but remain in contention. Key injuries could be decisive: Pittsburgh may be without key target DK Metcalf, while Baltimore's quarterback their MVP QB is questionable with a health issue.
Running back Derrick Henry might emerge as the difference-maker for the Ravens in what promises to be a physical, defensive battle.
NFC West Showdown for the Top Seed
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks (01:00, Sunday)
More than just the NFC West is at stake when Seattle visits the 49ers. The winner secures the NFC's top seed and the road to the Super Bowl that it provides.
This matchup features an high-powered San Francisco attack against a dominant Seahawks defense. With QB Brock Purdy returned, San Francisco have been the NFL's top offense. Conversely, the Seahawks' defense is rated among the best in the NFL.
The Seahawks' quarterback Sam Darnold needs to cut down on costly turnovers that have plagued him this year. Whoever comes out on top gains a massive edge for the postseason journey.
NFC South: A Race to Stumble Over the Line
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30 Saturday)
Both clubs enters this game with much momentum. The Buccaneers have dropped seven of eight, while the Panthers have missed chances to clinch the division.
For Carolina it's simple: win and they're in. For Tampa Bay, the scenario is trickier. Even with a win, they need help from the Atlanta-New Orleans game to claim the division crown.
Three-Way Fight for AFC Supremacy
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00, Sunday)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25, Sunday)
Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers (21:25, Sunday)
Denver hold the cards for the #1 AFC spot. A win over a Chargers team expected to sit starters seals it.
If the Broncos lose, the door opens for the New England Patriots. A New England victory coupled with a Broncos loss would hand the top seed to New England.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are the dark horse. They require a triumph and losses by both Denver and New England to pull off an unlikely rise to the top. More pressingly, a Jaguars loss could allow them to be overtaken by the Texans in the division standings.
NFL Week 18: Complete Schedule
Saturday, 3 January
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30)
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
Sunday, 4 January
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (18:00)
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (18:00)
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (18:00)
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (18:00)
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00)
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (18:00)
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (21:25)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25)
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (21:25)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (21:25)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders (21:25)
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (21:25)
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (21:25)
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (01:20, Monday)
