Moving from Grudging Admiration to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A unexpected operation against the capital city under cover of darkness, culminating in the capture of the country's president. By the next morning, the intervening power announces its plan to rule indefinitely.

That is precisely how Vladimir Putin imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

In public, Russian officials have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of global norms and a worrying development. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a coup that Moscow itself once imagined, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was meant to proceed: swift, dramatic and decisive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be engaged in combat for four years.”

Such commentary have fed a mood of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly war.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how audacious the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a web of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – hoping to forging a new axis able to challenge Washington.

Yet despite Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for the Caracas government just in late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other key allies fall from power or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with Trump on that front greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more nakedly power-based world order – one where might, rather than law, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”