Everyday Murders in Mexico Decline Thirty-Seven Percent In President Sheinbaum, According to Official Data

The average number of everyday homicides per month in Mexico has fallen by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to new government data. However, security specialists have warned that murder figures may not indicate improved countrywide security.

Notable Drop in Per-Day Figures

There was an average of almost 55 killings a day in last November as opposed to nearly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the leadership in September. This announcement was provided by the director of the nation's national safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that we’ve had in these past months is extremely important,” Claudia Sheinbaum stated, explaining that in November the lowest amount of murders were documented for any November in the past 10 years.

Historical Context and Government Strategy

Violent cartel infighting, alongside the administration's heavily military campaigns to combat the cartels, have led to Mexico’s murder numbers soar in recent years. The rate hit a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the nation's official data office.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide figure more than 4x higher than the US. Since then, murders have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has attributed her national security plan for an apparently steeper drop in homicides in the current year.

At a media briefing in August, the President stated: “There is a plan, we have tracking of the strategy, and there is specific monitoring town by town in some cases. The plan functions. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The key elements of the President's safety plan include:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigative work.
• Enhanced coordination between government departments.

Analyst Skepticism and Data Concerns

However, security analysts warned that relying on homicide numbers to assess the situation of peace was problematic. This is particularly true in light of the uptick in other criminal activities such as people going missing.

“It would be excellent information if this was a drop, but I think we must not just focus on the homicide data and conclude: ‘Oh well, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican cartels. “I would be guardedly positive.”

Per the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, murders overall fell by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year versus the same period the previous year. Yet, disappearances have increased by 15% and in some states have surged by up to 200%.

“Data on homicides is not reliable for gauging the situation of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the ability or the will to correctly recognize and classify remains. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the ability to hide violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas noted that using month-to-month means of everyday killings was similarly an issue because it could hide periods when there were particularly high numbers of killings.

“Relying on the daily mean makes high peaks of violent crime less visible,” he concluded.

Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Success

An area where the government can cite the effectiveness of its security strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Close to 40,000 suspects were apprehended between October 2024 and November 2025 for high-impact crimes, per government figures. Over 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tons of drugs confiscated.

“The former US president cannot claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s highly in political terms beneficial,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Anger

Yet despite these efforts, Mexico continues to be grappling with extreme bloodshed, with multiple states in the grip of cartel-related violence. Recently there was a high-profile murder of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders murdered in the last year.

A short time later, many thousands of youth protested in the capital and across the country to voice their frustration at graft and cartel violence.

“The government presents [data] in a manner to build a story of safety. Politically it’s very successful, socially it’s highly questionable,” Vargas said.