A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
